The Rise of a Multipolar World

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) chose what seemed an ironic topic at its summit in early July this year. While leaders discussed “Global Unity for a Just World and Harmony”, their meeting could be better understood as a further step in the fracturing of global geopolitics.¹

During the 1990s, many commentators observed the post-Cold War ascendancy of the United States and concluded that the world was on course to adopt its system of liberal democratic capitalism. Instead, a new generation of emerging economies is reshaping the global order.

The SCO, founded in 2001, now comprises ten nations: China, Russia, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Iran, and Belarus, the last of which was admitted in 2024. Originally focused on border security in Eurasia, it has taken on an increasingly geopolitical role.

It is not the only expanding group challenging the dominance of the West. In 2023, a meeting of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) earned global headlines for its members’ criticism of developed nations. In early 2024, five more countries joined the bloc—Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).²

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The Global South Has Been Left Behind

GDP Per Capita, 1960 – Present Day

Opportunities and Challenges in the Changing Global Landscape

The multipolar world will create opportunities for competition, conflict, and collaboration. The U.S.-led “rules-based order”, which has been in place since the end of World War II, is evolving. New players will seek to set new rules. Many of these players will come from the large economies in the less developed “Global South”. They include the world’s most populous country, India, and fastest-growing continent, Africa, whose population will comprise more than 25% of the planet’s by 2050.³

These shifts are already impacting multilateral institutions and modes of government. Challengers include the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and its associated organisations such as the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, and the SCO.

Putting Good Governance and Self-Reliance Before Development Assistance

At the same time as economic development has enabled new players to graduate to the top table of geopolitics, many others have been left behind. For the poorest nations, a century of aid, loans, and philanthropy has not created the intended outcomes. The strategy of creating broad-based prosperity by providing financial support for poverty alleviation and economic development has failed.

Missing in this strategy has been a consideration of why many recipient nations have been unable to steward the financial assistance they have received. Issues such as corruption, weak civil service capabilities, dysfunctional domestic institutions, poor performance management systems, and a lack of accountability for results at all levels have too often been seen as second order concerns.

History teaches us that no country has created prosperity by depending on development aid. Self-reliance has been key. There is no path to development that does not include building a capable, trustworthy government, and a national culture that values education and hard work. Nations that achieve this do not need foreign aid—and in fact soon become donors to their neighbours.

Singapore: A Governance Success Story

This was the path followed by Lee Kuan Yew, the founding father of Singapore. As the island city-state’s first prime minister, Lee inherited a post-colonial and ethnically diverse nation. It was small, reliant on its neighbours for food and water, and had no natural resources and few obvious economic advantages. Lee famously wept on television when Singapore was ejected from Malaysia in 1965.⁴‍

Singapore’s experience of going from third world to first holds five critical lessons.

1. Leadership and Vision

Wisdom, foresight, and the ability to take the long view are invaluable. Lee once said, “I am calculating in terms of the next generation; in terms of the next 100 years; in terms of eternity.” Many nations have had success through clear vision plans that set out coherent multi-year or multi-decade strategies, such as Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030” programme.

2. Cultures of Integrity

Lee and his cabinet took their oath of office symbolically dressed in all-white attire and then embarked on a zero-tolerance policy towards corruption. For a country, as for any organisation, the culture one gets is the culture modelled by the leadership. Lee’s stance against corruption encouraged a culture of integrity in government and across the nation that helped to build trust, a crucial ingredient in establishing a thriving economy and society.

3. Public Service Capabilities

Singapore’s rise has been enabled by its excellence in national governance, reflected in its first place position in the 2024 Chandler Good Government Index (CGGI). The country’s leaders successfully architected and engineered strong institutions and attracted highly capable public servants by offering them salaries comparable with the private sector.

4. Financial Discipline

Lee keenly understood the need to steward his nation’s finances. Singapore’s government has prioritised balanced budgets and the building up of financial reserves. At a time when U.S. gross federal debt has reached US$ 34 trillion⁵—more than 120% of GDP—Singapore still maintains and proactively manages substantial financial reserves, the use of which is clearly defined by the terms of the nation’s constitution.

As interest rates have risen, Singapore has been spared the dangers of debt servicing that have had a tremendous impact elsewhere. In Africa, the cost of servicing external public debt reached 18.6% of government revenue in 2024: a serious handicap to further development.⁶

5. Building a Middle Class

While other developing nations sought foreign aid, Lee wanted Singapore to build a vibrant marketplace and to be a partner to the world’s wealthy countries and large companies. As businesses build vibrant economies and create employment, they provide opportunities for people to climb the social mobility ladder. In turn, this increases the size of the nation’s middle class, a reservoir of capital and creativity that further accelerates economic development.

As the middle class grows, it generates its own momentum as export-led growth models evolve into consumption-led economies. Leaders who want to build prosperity understand the power of helping people into and through the middle class.

Understanding Nation Building: The Chandler Governance Model

One of the things that marked out Lee was his intentional approach to architecting the country’s institutions, public service, economic model, national identity, and culture. As he set about this process, he was inspired by what he saw working and failing in other countries. He was able to integrate these lessons and bring a holistic approach to building a strong nation.

In the face of their daily pressures, many political and public service leaders can struggle to find the space to think strategically about long-term development. It is easy for governance to become all about solving today’s problems—not about building a stronger nation for tomorrow. The Chandler Governance Model (CGM) has been designed to address this by helping national leaders and governance practitioners to understand the essential features of a strong government and where their own nation may be succeeding or struggling.

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The Chandler Governance Model

The Responsibility of Political Leadership

The CGM posits that national development begins with wise, competent, and ethical political leadership that is committed to national development and shared prosperity. Political leadership is built on a compelling vision, responsible stewardship of the nation’s story, culture, and resources, and effective policy-making. Great leaders demonstrate good judgement in navigating challenges, while also strengthening the national economy and government capabilities.

The Unseen Forces of Transformation

Surrounding political leadership is the “transformation ring”, comprising three forces that determine the speed, direction, and success of national development: societal trust, social mobility, and identity and culture.

‍High-Trust Nations are Prosperous Nations

Trust enhances collaboration and reduces social frictions, impacting everything from crime rates and public health to business confidence, interest rates, and capital markets.

Governments have tremendous power to influence levels of trust. High-trust nations are bound together by cultures of integrity—shared norms and codes of behaviour that operate at all levels of society. When a government clamps down on corruption and serves the population in a trustworthy manner, it does not just support trust in government, it cascades down to build trust in the marketplace and in communities.

Social Mobility Supports Economic Strength

Few people expect or even desire a world where economic and social outcomes are equal—but most hope for one where the same opportunities are open to all. This is the essence of a meritocratic and socially mobile society.

Social mobility builds the economic strength of a nation by giving people the chance to join the middle class. There are also cultural benefits. When people believe that success is based on ability and effort rather than factors such as gender, race, or family wealth, they have more faith in society and its institutions.

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Prosperous Societies Have Attractive Marketplaces

CGGI Attractive Marketplace Score vs GDP per Capita

Building a Unified and Dynamic Nation

Many nations are struggling with disunity, whether it is caused by political polarisation, migration, or the legacy of historical events such as colonialism. In addressing this challenge, nurturing a common national identity is vital. This does not emerge in a vacuum; it can be cultivated and reinforced through conscious efforts by national leaders.

Closely related to a nation’s identity is its culture. This can be beneficial or harmful to a nation’s chances of achieving development. It can either reward hard work, risk-taking, innovation, and fairness—or not. Political leaders who shape culture so that it aligns with national development priorities will find that it is a powerful force supporting the implementation of policy across a broad range of issues.

Strong Government Institutions

The important distinction between political leadership and government is one of the critical revelations of the CGM. The former refers to the leader and their office. The latter refers to the constitution and laws, institutions, and bureaucracy that govern the country and comprise the public service.

A nation’s constitution and laws embody its core beliefs and guide the translation of abstract concepts into practical regulations. Alongside this robust legal framework, a government must build and maintain strong institutions to administer and enforce them.

Government also needs the skills and capabilities to implement policies, deliver public services efficiently, and respond to the needs and aspirations of its citizens. This requires training civil servants and ensuring that ministries are effective.

Supporting Marketplace Companies and Entrepreneurs

Within the CGM, the marketplace companies and entrepreneurs domain highlights the importance of business and trade in establishing the strength and success of the nation. No amount of domestic government intervention or foreign aid spending can generate sustainable, broad-based prosperity. This can only be done by the people of the nation through their own creativity, entrepreneurship, and hard work. A functioning market economy is the engine room of national progress.

People in every country have the creativity and latent potential to drive a thriving economy. What is not so evenly distributed is the opportunity to do so.

The role of government in ensuring a vibrant marketplace lies in setting the right enabling conditions. These include physical, legal, and financial infrastructure, strong contract law and property rights, public services such as power, a healthy and well-educated workforce, and a culture that values hard work and risk-taking. When governments provide these conditions, companies will in turn fulfil society’s needs by providing employment, creating goods and services, and contributing tax revenue.

The Attractive Marketplace pillar of the CGGI measures government success in delivering this. The strong correlation between a nation’s GDP per capita and its Attractive Marketplace score demonstrates that only governments that succeed in empowering business will build a strong and prosperous nation.

Strong Cities and Communities

The final domain of the CGM is strong cities and communities. World Bank statistics show that 56% of the world’s population lives in cities, contributing more than 80% of global GDP. The rise of cities is only expected to continue, with nearly 70% of people living in urban areas by 2050.⁷ Liveable, well-governed cities, that are home to healthy and cohesive communities, are economic powerhouses that benefit the whole nation.

Policy Drivers: Basic Public Goods, Marketplace Infrastructure, and Creative Society

The final aspect of the CGM is the National Development Flywheel, represented by the “blades” of the model. These three policy drivers—basic public goods, marketplace infrastructure, and creative society—establish priority areas for government and show how the different domains are connected.

The government provides basic public goods to support cities and communities, and marketplace infrastructure to enable companies and entrepreneurs. Creative society policies focus on giving people the ability to fully express their talents and passions. These policies encourage a healthy, skilled, and aspirational workforce.

When all the parts of the model work together, we see strong leaders implementing visionary and ethical governance that creates an environment conducive to private sector innovation, and strong, healthy communities.

The CGM in Practice

Examining case studies across the world shows how the CGM can offer a practical framework for assessing government performance. For example, the U.S.’s long-term economic success has been underpinned by a governance system that has valued marketplace companies and entrepreneurs. The rise of the culture wars suggest that its leaders have been less successful in maintaining a sense of national identity.

In Western Europe, many countries have struggled with productivity and GDP growth, a sign that governments may have neglected marketplace companies and entrepreneurs. In Singapore, the country’s new Prime Minister, Lawrence Wong, has spoken of redefining success to focus less on material goods and more on collective well-being.⁸ This could be interpreted as an understanding that, while Singapore has enjoyed great success across the CGM, the cities and communities domain may require greater focus.

For nations at the bottom of global development rankings, the CGM’s primary revelation is the importance of wise and competent political leadership. Given the challenges of finding such figures, this might seem disheartening. Yet I believe it is a tremendous source of hope as it shows the great potential that exists for all nations that manage to get this first step right.

CIG: Focusing on Strong Governance

I have been considering questions of governance ever since I wrote my Masters thesis on corporate governance as a student in the 1980s. In the decades since, as an investor and entrepreneur in emerging markets, I have seen the damage done by weak national governance and corruption. I have also experienced the struggles that traditional philanthropic and charitable ventures face in trying to make a scalable, sustainable impact.

I founded CIG in Singapore in 2019 to bring a new and more practical approach to national development, focusing on good governance as the foundation of strong and prosperous nations. Guided by the revelations of the CGM, CIG’s tools and services for governments are designed to help other nations around the world follow in the city-state’s footsteps. There are no shortcuts on this path, but the effort is worthwhile. Just ask the people of Singapore.